26 August 1964 · Declassified special national intelligence estimate
The Chances of an Imminent Communist Chinese Nuclear Explosion
Director of Central Intelligence and United States Intelligence Board
Why it matters
The estimate records both the reach and limit of remote intelligence. Analysts had located Lop Nor and recognised preparations, but they remained unsure whether China had enough fissile material for an imminent test. The document turns opacity itself into a strategic image.
- Publication
- Special National Intelligence Estimate 13-4-64
- Holding institution
- United States Central Intelligence Agency; United States Government Publishing Office
- Shelfmark
- SNIE 13-4-64; GovInfo PURL LPS9944, pages 237–244
United States Intelligence Board. The Chances of an Imminent Communist Chinese Nuclear Explosion. Special National Intelligence Estimate 13-4-64, 26 August 1964. Reproduced in CORONA: America’s First Satellite Program, 237–244.